As the Strait of Hormuz disruption rattled global oil markets, a new study from Rakuten Insight reveals that while Malaysia and Thailand share identical economic worry scores, their pressure points are worlds apart: one is watching the kitchen, and one is watching the petrol station.

KUALA LUMPUR / BANGKOK, April 20, 2026 – In the first week of April 2026, global commodity markets saw Brent crude approaching US$115 per barrel as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a fraction of its normal volume. During the same window, Rakuten Insight surveyed 2,106 consumers across Malaysia and Thailand to gauge the real-world impact on household sentiment.

The findings reveal a striking divergence. Both countries registered an identical economic worry score of 8.09 out of 10 — a remarkable coincidence down to the third decimal place. Both share a similar proportion of consumers expecting household finances to worsen. However, beneath that surface alignment sits a clear split: Malaysians are most worried about the cost of food, while Thais are most worried about the price of fuel.

The Kitchen vs. The Pump

While a global oil supply shock typically produces universal anxiety, the direction of that anxiety varies by market. In Malaysia, a country that produces oil and historically insulated consumers through fuel subsidies, 35.8% of respondents identified food and groceries as their primary worry. This concern outranked fuel, job security and loan repayments. Fuel ranked second at 24.1%.

Thailand presents the opposite scenario. As a net oil importer, Thai consumers feel price fluctuations at the pump immediately. In the survey, 34.4% named fuel and transport as their top concern, with food ranking second at 26.8%. This exact inversion suggests that underlying economic structures, such as Malaysia’s food inflation and Thailand’s fuel exposure, are shaping consumer sentiment more than the geopolitical headlines themselves.

“The identical worry scores caught our attention immediately. When you dig beneath them, you find two countries experiencing the same macro pressure through completely different lenses. For Malaysia, it is the kitchen. For Thailand, it is the fuel pump. Same thermometer reading, completely different symptoms, and that has profound implications for any business operating across both markets.”

— Collin Leow, Country Director, Rakuten Insight Malaysia & Thailand

When the Bill Arrives: Cutting, Earning and Going Local

In both markets, the immediate response to cost pressure is to reduce spending. However,  the intensity of this reflex differs. In Thailand, 63.9% of consumers say their first instinct is to cut spending when expenses rise. In Malaysia, 52.1% say the same. The higher response rate in Thailand suggests a market with fewer buffers and less capacity for delay.

The impact is particularly visible in the food service sector. Thai consumers are reducing dining out at nearly twice the rate of Malaysians, with a net spending intent of −42.0 in Thailand versus −22.1 in Malaysia. A similar pattern holds for food delivery, where intent sits at −33.9 in Thailand compared to −16.4 in Malaysia.

Malaysian consumers, however, are not simply doing less — they are adapting differently. Malaysian consumers are also showing unique signs of structural adaptation: one in five Malaysians (19.9%) have begun choosing locally made products over imports specifically to manage the cost affected by Ringgit volatility. This behavior, which was not present in the initial March survey wave, has already overtaken subscription cancellations as a primary coping strategy.

Malaysia: A Shift Toward Structural Adaptation

For Malaysia, this second wave of the tracker shows a clear trend: concern and pessimism are rising while duration expectations are stretching. Every single metric tracked since March moved in the same direction — not one indicator of confidence, resilience or optimism improved between the two waves. The initial shock of the Hormuz closure in March as the crisis broke, was not the peak. It was, as one member of the research team put it, the floor.

The timeline of expectations is telling. When asked how long they expected the Hormuz disruption to continue, only 2.9% of Malaysian respondents believed it was already behind them. More than three in four expected at least another month of disruption, while nearly a third expected it to last beyond six months. These consumers are no longer braced for a passing shock; they are making decisions based on the conclusion that the pressure is structural.

While grocery and utility spending intent is rising, this reflects higher prices rather than increased demand. Consumers expect to spend more because they have to, not because they are buying more.  

“The movement from Wave 1 to Wave 2 tells us that Malaysians have moved from an acute reaction into structural adaptation. The pivot to Malaysian-made brands and other lifestyle adjustments are not just emergency measures. They are early signs of a population recalibrating its consumption for the long haul.”

— Collin Leow, Country Director, Rakuten Insight Malaysia & Thailand

A Ceasefire Declared but the Reset Takes Time.

Shortly after this survey closed, a US-Iran ceasefire was announced and oil prices fell. While markets responded positively, household sentiment moves slower. Groceries purchased at peak prices, loan instalments recalibrated against April’s income anxiety and the restaurant habits broken during weeks of cost pressure do not reset instantly.

Wave 3 of the Cost Pressure Pulse, scheduled for May, will provide the first look at whether consumer resignation begins to lift or if the structural adjustments now underway have taken on a life of their own, regardless of future movements in oil prices.

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About the survey
The Malaysia Cost Pressure Pulse Wave 2 was conducted via Rakuten Insight’s proprietary online panel from 6 to 8 April 2026 (n=1,052). The Thailand Cost Pressure Pulse Wave 1 was conducted from 3 to 6 April 2026 (n=1,054). Both samples are quota controlled to reflect national demographic profiles by age, gender and region. The tracker runs on a monthly cadence and covers cost-of-living concern, economic outlook, spending intentions and coping behavior.

About Rakuten Insight
Rakuten Insight, Inc. is a wholly-owned online market research subsidiary company of Rakuten Group, Inc. Rakuten Insight was established in 1997 as AIP Corporation and became part of the Rakuten Group in 2014. Rakuten Insight possesses a research panel focusing on 12 countries and regions in Asia & the US and a panel network covering 60 countries and regions. With offices in 11 countries and regions, Rakuten Insight provides market research for over 500 leading companies around the world. For more information, visit https://insight.rakuten.com/

Media contact
Collin Leow
Country Director, Rakuten Insight Malaysia & Thailand
collin.leow@rakuten.com

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EDITOR’S NOTES
Infographic: A one-page cross-market infographic comparing Malaysia and Thailand is available for embedding or republication. Please reach out to the media contact listed above.
Data: Full topline tables and demographic breakdowns for both markets available on request.
Interviews: Collin Leow is available for interviews to discuss implications for banking, F&B, FMCG, telco and energy sectors.
Attribution: Please credit Rakuten Insight (NOT ‘Rakuten’) and the Malaysia/Thailand Cost Pressure Pulse when citing data.